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Thursday, February 19, 2026
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Iran strike U.S. bases warning shadows Oman nuclear talks

Iran strike U.S. bases warning from Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi raised regional tail risks even as Iran and the U.S. described indirect Oman nuclear talks as positive and agreed to continue. Tehran framed retaliation as targeting U.S. forces, not host countries.

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Iran strike U.S. bases warning shadows Oman nuclear talks

Iran strike U.S. bases warning is back in focus as diplomacy continues. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran would hit American bases in the region if the United States attacks Iran. He argued this should not be read as a threat to host countries.

What Iran’s foreign minister said

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran would retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Middle East if Iran is attacked by U.S. forces positioned in the region. He said any response would target U.S. installations rather than neighboring countries hosting them. He framed the distinction as important for regional relations. (Reuters, Feb. 7, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/if-us-attacks-iran-says-it-will-strike-us-bases-region-2026-02-07/)

Araqchi’s message added a deterrence layer to ongoing negotiations. His comments arrived one day after Iran and the United States said indirect talks in Oman were a “good start” and pledged to continue. (Reuters, Feb. 6, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-negotiate-oman-amid-deep-rifts-mounting-war-fears-2026-02-06/)

How the Oman talks fit into the picture

The Muscat meetings were indirect and mediated by Oman, according to Reuters. Both sides described the discussions positively and signaled another round could follow soon. Iran’s officials emphasized that talks should stay limited to the nuclear file. (Reuters, Feb. 6, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-negotiate-oman-amid-deep-rifts-mounting-war-fears-2026-02-06/)

Araqchi reiterated a familiar point in this context. He said Iran would not negotiate issues beyond the nuclear program, including missiles, under threat. He argued diplomacy requires an end to coercive pressure. (Reuters, Feb. 7, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/if-us-attacks-iran-says-it-will-strike-us-bases-region-2026-02-07/)

U.S. posture and the deterrence signal

Iran strike U.S. bases messaging is closely tied to force posture. Reuters reported that U.S. forces have massed in the region amid rising tensions and warnings from President Donald Trump. The same Reuters account said Washington has demanded Iran halt uranium enrichment and curb other activities. (Reuters, Feb. 7, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/if-us-attacks-iran-says-it-will-strike-us-bases-region-2026-02-07/)

A similar warning theme appeared earlier in January. Reuters reported Iran cautioned that if the U.S. attacked Iran, U.S. bases in host countries would be targets. Reuters also reported the U.S. withdrew some personnel from certain bases as a precaution. (Reuters, Jan. 14, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/)

This is the logic behind the latest Iran strike U.S. bases warning. Tehran is signaling that any strike decision carries immediate regional costs. It is also signaling that host governments are not the intended target set.

Why this matters for markets

Iran strike U.S. bases warnings tend to matter through tail-risk channels. The rhetoric can lift the perceived probability of disruption even without an attack.

Energy risk premium

Oil traders track Middle East escalation risk for potential supply or transport interruptions. Even if barrels do not move immediately, risk premia can rise on threat headlines.

Shipping and insurance costs

Marine insurers and ship operators price risk around chokepoints and regional conflict dynamics. Elevated rhetoric can raise premiums and alter routing behavior, especially for sensitive cargo.

Regional asset pricing

Local markets can react through FX, credit spreads, and equity risk premiums. Companies with exposure to Gulf logistics and defense supply chains may see higher implied volatility.

The key point is not certainty of conflict. The key point is that Iran strike U.S. bases rhetoric shortens reaction time for risk managers.

What Tehran is trying to communicate

Iran’s framing is designed to separate retaliation from hostility toward neighbors. Araqchi’s point was explicit: retaliation would be against U.S. bases, not against the host countries themselves. That framing aims to reduce political pressure on regional governments while maintaining deterrence. (Reuters, Feb. 7, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/if-us-attacks-iran-says-it-will-strike-us-bases-region-2026-02-07/)

It also protects Iran’s diplomatic narrative. Tehran wants to keep talks alive in Oman while warning against escalation. That balance is delicate and can break quickly.

What to watch next

Signals from the next talks

Watch whether the next round is scheduled, and how both sides describe scope. Reuters reported Iran is resisting any widening of the agenda beyond nuclear issues. (Reuters, Feb. 6, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-negotiate-oman-amid-deep-rifts-mounting-war-fears-2026-02-06/)

U.S. force movements and base security

Markets watch operational indicators more than rhetoric. Any confirmed changes in troop posture, air defenses, or base access can shift perceived risk.

Regional government messaging

Host countries may reiterate that they do not want to be drawn into conflict. Iran’s effort to separate targets from hosts will be tested by official statements.

Incident risk

Even without policy shifts, small incidents can escalate. The probability of miscalculation rises when rhetoric and posture both harden.

Iran strike U.S. bases warnings and indirect talks can coexist for a time. The near-term question is whether diplomacy reduces the risk premium, or whether threats keep it elevated.

Sources: Reuters (Feb. 7, 2026; Feb. 6, 2026; Jan. 14, 2026).

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